USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations
By Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero*
23 May 2019
In this paper we discuss:
- the latest developments in the US-Iran geopolitical tensions;
- the impact of these tensions on Iran's growth and inflation outlook;
- the measures taken by the Iranian government to cushion this impact;
- the implications of these tensions for oil prices, the global economy and inflation outlook; and
- a scenario analysis on how we believe the situation will evolve in coming months.
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* Giorgio Cafiero is CEO and Founder of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consulting firm which assesses risks and opportunities among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.