POLICY COMPASS

US-Iran Scenario Analysis: Risk-off Ahead

An Update On The Conflict And Implications For The Global Economy, Policies And Markets

By Nouriel Roubini and Giorgio Cafiero

8 January 2020

In this paper we discuss:

• The latest developments in the US-Iran confrontation;
• The events that led to these letest developments;
• A scenario analysis on how the sitution could evolve in the future;
• The implications for the global economy, monetary and fiscal policies and major asset classes; and
• The implications for oil prices.

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