MACRO PICTURE: US-China Trade & Tech War Scenarios

A Controlled Escalation In the Trade and Tech War is More Likely Than a Full Deal or a Full-Scale War

By Nouriel Roubini

14 June 2019

In this paper we discuss:

  • The latest developments in the US-China trade tensions;
  • Three scenarios of how the situation can evolve over time;
  • Why we believe that controlled escalation is more likely than a deal or full war;
  • How controlled escalation can morph into either a full deal or a full-scale war; and
  • The market implications of the above.

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Download PDF: R&R Trade-Tech War Scenarios - June 2019

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