Negative Supply Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy Response

How Central Banks Should Respond To The Ongoing US-China Trade and Tech War and Potential US-Iran Oil War

by Nouriel Roubini

20 August 2019

In this paper we discuss:

  • The three supply shocks that are affecting the global economy;
  • The latest developments on the US/China tech and trade war, on the US/China Cold War, on the US/Iran geopolitical tension;
  • The impact these negative supply shocks are having on growth potential;
  • The policy respone adopted so far: monetary and fiscal easing; and
  • How the policy response might change in the medium term.

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