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Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Scenarios, Endgames And Macro- Financial and Policy Implications

by John C. Hulsman and Marco Lucchin

1 March 2022

In this paper we discuss:

  1. How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught the world by surprise;
  2. How we got here: the West wasted 8 years while Putin was preparing the invasion;
  3. A possible endgame, with Ukraine divided into two parts;
  4. A scenario analysis on what Russia may actually achieve;
  5. The macroeconomic implications of a stagflationary negative supply-side shock;
  6. How the war will make central banks’ policy conundrum worse; and
  7. How the price of safe-haven assets is set to rise.

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