GLOBAL OUTLOOK

Global 2025 Outlook After “Liberation Day” 

Rising Risks of A Global Recession and a Market Collapse

by Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze

11 April 2025

• Editorial: The Increasing Risk of a Global Recession and A Market Collapse
• Macroeconomic Developments: Rising Risk of a Recession
• Political Risks: Increasing Given U.S. Policy Uncertainty
• Geopolitical Developments: Not as Rosy As Expected Under Trump
• Policy Outlook: Uncertainty Dominates
• Central Banks In An Uncertain Global Economy
• Fiscal Policy: Policy - Consolidation Challenged by Emerging Risks
• Market Implications: Risks Of Collapse Increase

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