TRAVEL NOTES: ITALY

Italy is Happily Out of the Radar Screen, But Remains Vulnerable to Shocks

By Brunello Rosa

22 October 2024

In this paper we discuss:

  • Italy's short-term out-performance vs EZ peers, and medium-term underperformance;
  • The difficult fiscal position, with the country needing to reduce the budget deficit and its debt;
  • The new Structural Budget Plan the Treasury has presented to Brussel;
  • The limited influence Italy will have in the new EU Commission;
  • Meloni's control over the country's political system, while the opposition re-organises; and
  • Recent market developments, with BTP- Bund spread much narrower, but the spread vs Spain and Portugal remaining too wide.

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Download PDF: Italy travel notes - October 2024

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