POLICY COMPASS
The Impact of a Possible Second Term by Trump In The Indo-Pacific
by Mirko Giordani
23 July 2024
In this paper we discuss:
- The possibility of a Trump victory in November and its implications for the Indo-Pacific;
- Trump’s “Grand Strategy” in the Indo-Pacific, based on protectionism against China and how this is likely to continue in his second term;
- Why diplomats believe that Trump takes the question of Taiwan’s autonomy seriously;
- Why Japan may benefit from a second term by Trump, as a key part of the First Island Chain, which the US hopes to bolster;
- The cold approach Trump is likely to have towards the Quad (Australia, India and Japan), South Korea, India, ASEAN countries, including the Philippines; and
- Why this may represent a great opportunity for China to expand its influence over ASEAN.
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