Hedging Against A Euro Break-Up

By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, Damiano Terziotti

30 August 2018

In this paper we discuss:

  • The global context and risks that could lead to a global recession in coming years;
  • The specific risks to the Eurozone’s survival: what reforms would be needed for the EZ to integrate more and why the rise of populist parties make them difficult to implement;
  • A scenario analysis on how a EZ break-up could occur;
  • The economic impact and market implications of a EZ break-up; and
  • The hedging strategies that could implemented to protect investors’ portfolios in case of a EZ break-up.

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