A Le Pen/RN Majority Is More Likely Than A Hung Parliament

By Nouriel Roubini

28 June 2024

In this paper we discuss:

  • The latest polls ahead of the first round of the legislative elections, showing a clear advantage of RN;
  • That we believe that an absolute majority for RN is more likely than a hung parliament;
  • That RN will form a government even without if it's just 10-20 MPs short of an absolute majority;
  • That RN, once in power, will be more moderate than during the electoral campaign;
  • RN's fiscal proposals, which will be watered down in case of victory;
  • How markets may impose their discipline in case of an excessive fiscal slippage; and
  • The risk of street violence in coming weeks.

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