TRAVEL NOTES: FRANCE
A Le Pen/RN Majority Is More Likely Than A Hung Parliament
By Nouriel Roubini
28 June 2024
In this paper we discuss:
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The latest polls ahead of the first round of the legislative elections, showing a clear advantage of RN;
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That we believe that an absolute majority for RN is more likely than a hung parliament;
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That RN will form a government even without if it's just 10-20 MPs short of an absolute majority;
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That RN, once in power, will be more moderate than during the electoral campaign;
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RN's fiscal proposals, which will be watered down in case of victory;
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How markets may impose their discipline in case of an excessive fiscal slippage; and
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The risk of street violence in coming weeks.
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