POLICY COMPASS

Macron’s Electoral Gamble Could Cost Dearly to France and Europe, But Market Discipline May Eventually Be The Strongest Guardrail To A Le Pen Presidency

By Brunello Rosa and Nouriel Roubini

21 June 2024

In this paper we discuss:

• The result of EU elections confirming the current majority;
• How the EU elections led to French parliamentary snap elections;
• The short-term scenarios: will a possible PM Bardella moderate?
• The medium-term outlook: will a President Le Pen destroy the EU?How markets became very nervous, but may eventually impose discipline to Le Pen;
• Sovereign bond market: where from here?

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Download PDF: France - June 2024[10]

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