POLICY COMPASS

Fed’s Policy Into 2020-21: Lower For Longer?

by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

15 November 2019

In this paper we discuss:

• The latest developments in the US economy (growth and inflation);
• Why the estimate of the "neutral" policy rate might have fallen over time;
• What the Fed is likely to do after the 2019 "insurance" rate cuts;
• What the Fed might be doing in 2020 and 2021; and
• The market implications of all the above.

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Download PDF: R&R Fed's Future Neutral Policy Rate - November 2019

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