POLICY COMPASS

China and Taiwan: When Is the “Redde Rationem” Going To Occur?

By Mirko Giordani

16 October 2024

In this paper we discuss:

• The possibility of China invading Taiwan by 2027;
• The actual Chinese capabilities for an invasion and how the US would respond:
• The broader strategic picture;
• Whether China will attempt to use force to finally retake Taiwan; and
• Two different approaches to the issue and a compromise solution: persuasion, force, or continued pressure

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Download PDF: China-Taiwan - October 2024