MACRO PICTURE

Germany at a Crossroads: Navigating Economic Stagnation, Energy Dependence, and Global Pressures

by Nato Balavadze

8 October 2024

In this paper we discuss:

• The decline of Germany’s economic engine and its causes;
• The energy crisis: from dependency on Russia's cheap import to vulnerability;
• Germany's fragile supply chain given the over-reliance on Eastern European factories;
• The reliance on exports to China, which has become a geo-strategic rival;
• Military spending impeded by Germany's excessive fiscal discipline; and
• Political uncertainty and the rise of far-right populism.

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