MARKET VIEWS
2021-22 Oil Outlook: Supply Increases, As Global Demand Improves
By Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi, Karmen Meneses and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi
16 August 2021
In this paper we discuss:
1 – Macroeconomic Context: Global Growth Prospects Remain Supported By Accommodative Liquidity Conditions, And Improved Business Activities
2 - Geopolitical Context: Risks Deriving Mainly From Russia, China and Iran
3 – Oil Outlook (2021-22): Oil Market Fundamentals Continue To Strengthen, As The Economic Recovery Continues
4 – Base Case Scenario (70% Probability): Oil Prices Will Moderate As Demand Uncertainties Heighten – Driven By The COVID-19 Delta Variant
5 - Market Impact: Market Volatility And Price Uncertainty Will Linger; Valuations Will Improve
6 – Risks And Alternative Scenarios
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