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USA - Iran: Escalating Tensions, With High Risk Of Mis-Calculations

By Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Giorgio Cafiero*

23 May 2019

In this paper we discuss:

• the latest developments in the US-Iran geopolitical tensions;
• the impact of these tensions on Iran's growth and inflation outlook;
• the measures taken by the Iranian government to cushion this impact;
• the implications of these tensions for oil prices, the global economy and inflation outlook; and
• a scenario analysis on how we believe the situation will evolve in coming months.

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* Giorgio Cafiero is CEO and Founder of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consulting firm which assesses risks and opportunities among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.